Week 3 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Brian Robinson from EV Insight

Brian RobinsonRushing Yards

Right now, Brian Robinson’s rushing yards prop is set at 52.5 yards (-108/-127).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 52.5 (-127) after it opened @ 55.5 (-119).

Pros

The Washington Commanders have called the 3rd-most plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 62.2 plays per game.
Brian Robinson has been on the field for 44.8% of his offense’s snaps since the start of last season, ranking him in the 77th percentile among RBs.
THE BLITZ projects Brian Robinson to accumulate 15.0 rush attempts this week, on average, ranking in the 81st percentile among RBs.
Brian Robinson has generated 64.0 rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the highest figures in the league among RBs (91st percentile).
The Buffalo Bills safeties grade out as the 30th-worst collection of safeties in football since the start of last season in regard to run defense.

Cons

The Washington Commanders boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 9.8% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The Commanders are a 5.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders as the 4th-least run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 37.0% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Commanders to call the 4th-least total plays among all teams this week with 61.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing squads have run for the 4th-least yards in the league (just 97 per game) vs. the Buffalo Bills defense since the start of last season.

Projection

THE BLITZ
65
Rushing Yards