Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
James CookRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Commanders vs. Bills
Right now, James Cook’s rushing yards prop is set at 53.5 yards (-137/+100).
The public has bet the OVER up to 53.5 (-137) after it opened @ 50.5 (-113).
Pros
- The Bills are a 5.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating a rushing game script.
- James Cook’s running efficiency (5.65 yards per carry) has been some of the best in football this year (85th percentile among running backs).
- James Cook has done a better job at grinding out extra running yardage this year, notching 4.38 yards-after-contact vs a 3.02 rate last year.
- The Washington Commanders linebackers project as the 3rd-worst LB corps in football since the start of last season in regard to stopping the run.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 8th-least run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 39.1% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-least plays run on the slate this week at 123.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Buffalo Bills have run the 10th-least plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling just 55.8 plays per game.
- The Buffalo Bills O-line ranks as the 10th-worst in the league since the start of last season at opening holes for rushers.
- Opposing squads have rushed for the 8th-least yards in football (just 110 per game) against the Washington Commanders defense since the start of last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
55
Rushing Yards
55
Rushing Yards
