Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Tua TagovailoaPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Chargers vs. Dolphins
Right now, Tua Tagovailoa’s passing yards prop is set at 260.5 yards (-103/-133).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 260.5 (-133) after it opened @ 268.5 (-117).
Pros
- The Dolphins are a 3-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 5th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 62.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Tua Tagovailoa to attempt 37.4 passes this week, on average: the 6th-most of all quarterbacks.
- Tua Tagovailoa has been among the leading quarterbacks in football since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 254.0 yards per game while ranking in the 78th percentile.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to call the 8th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.9 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Miami Dolphins have called the 4th-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a lowly 54.1 plays per game.
- Opposing teams have averaged 31.1 pass attempts per game against the Los Angeles Chargers defense since the start of last season: 7th-least in football.
- The Miami Dolphins offensive line profiles as the 8th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.
- Opposing teams have passed for the least yards in the NFL (just 188.0 per game) against the Los Angeles Chargers defense since the start of last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
309
Passing Yards
309
Passing Yards
