Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
T.J. HockensonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Vikings vs. Buccaneers
Right now, T.J. Hockenson’s receiving yards prop is set at 45.5 yards (-110/-120).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 45.5 (-120) after it opened @ 45.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings to be the 2nd-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 63.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run among all games this week at 130.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Minnesota Vikings have run the 7th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a colossal 60.7 plays per game.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has conceded the 7th-highest Completion% in the league (74.6%) to tight ends since the start of last season (74.6%).
Cons
- The Vikings are a 4.5-point favorite this week, likely creating a rushing game script.
- The Minnesota Vikings O-line ranks as the 8th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all pass game metrics across the board.
- T.J. Hockenson has been among the least efficient receivers in the league among tight ends, averaging a lowly 5.25 yards-per-target since the start of last season while ranking in the 6th percentile.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has performed very well when opposing TEs have gotten into space, allowing an average of 3.68 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 8th-least in the league.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers safeties profile as the 2nd-best unit in the league since the start of last season when it comes to rushing the passer.
Projection
THE BLITZ
49
Receiving Yards
49
Receiving Yards
