Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Zack MossRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 18
Colts vs. Texans
Right now, Zack Moss’s rushing yards prop is set at 64.5 yards (-114/-114).
Pros
- The Colts are a 3-point favorite this week, likely creating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts to be the 9th-most run-oriented team on the slate this week with a 45.9% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts offense as the 10th-quickest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 27.07 seconds per play.
- THE BLITZ projects Zack Moss to accumulate 16.3 carries in this game, on average, placing him in the 90th percentile among running backs.
- Opposing squads have run for the most yards in football (169 per game) vs. the Houston Texans defense this year.
Cons
- The Indianapolis Colts will be forced to utilize backup quarterback Sam Ehlinger in this game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- The Indianapolis Colts O-line grades out as the 9th-worst in the NFL this year at blocking for rushers.
- The Indianapolis Colts have gone no-huddle on just 2.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (4th-least in the NFL). This slows down the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.
Projection
THE BLITZ
68
Rushing Yards
68
Rushing Yards
