Week 18 Player Props: Passing Yards for Brock Purdy from EV Insight

Brock PurdyPassing Yards

Right now, Brock Purdy’s passing yards prop is set at 229.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 229.5 (-110) after it opened @ 239.5 (-110).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the 49ers to run the 2nd-most total plays among all teams this week with 69.3 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have passed for the 9th-most yards in football (246.0 per game) against the Arizona Cardinals defense this year.
Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 3rd-highest level in football versus the Arizona Cardinals defense this year (73.9%).
The Arizona Cardinals defense has not been good when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 5.78 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 2nd-most in football.
The Arizona Cardinals cornerbacks grade out as the 9th-worst CB corps in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

Cons

The 49ers are a huge 14.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the 3rd-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 49.6% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Arizona Cardinals pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 10th-quickest in football since the start of last season.
The San Francisco 49ers have gone no-huddle on just 3.4% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (6th-least in the league). This slows down the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.
The San Francisco 49ers have gone for it on 4th down just 15.8% of the time since the start of last season (9th-least in the NFL), which typically means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.

Projection

THE BLITZ
220
Passing Yards