Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Sam DarnoldPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 18
Saints vs. Panthers
Right now, Sam Darnold’s passing yards prop is set at 199.5 yards (-110/-120).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 199.5 (-120) after it opened @ 211.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Carolina Panthers will be starting backup QB Sam Darnold in this game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
- The Panthers are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- The Carolina Panthers O-line grades out as the 4th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all passing attack stats across the board.
- Sam Darnold’s throwing precision has improved this year, with his Completion% rising from 59.9% to 64.5%.
Cons
- The Carolina Panthers will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 5.9% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers as the 7th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 53.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 124.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Carolina Panthers have called the least plays in football this year, averaging a mere 53.2 plays per game.
- Opposing quarterbacks have passed for the 2nd-least yards in football (just 201.0 per game) vs. the New Orleans Saints defense this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
220
Passing Yards
220
Passing Yards
