Week 18 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Latavius Murray from EV Insight

Latavius MurrayRushing Yards

Right now, Latavius Murray’s rushing yards prop is set at 55.5 yards (-131/-104).

The public has bet the OVER up to 55.5 (-131) after it opened @ 48.5 (-110).

Pros

The Broncos are a 6.5-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Broncos to run the 7th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 67.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Latavius Murray to accrue 15.9 carries in this week’s game, on average, putting him in the 88th percentile among RBs.
Latavius Murray has been a much bigger part of his offense’s running game this season (56.6% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (33.5%).
The Los Angeles Chargers defense has had the worst efficiency against opposing running games this year, giving up 5.55 yards-per-carry.

Cons

The Denver Broncos boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.1% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Latavius Murray’s rushing efficiency (4.00 yards per carry) has been some of the worst in the league this year (24th percentile among RBs).
The Denver Broncos have gone up against a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Denver Broncos have gone no-huddle on a mere 3.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (7th-least in the league). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.

Projection

THE BLITZ
64
Rushing Yards