NFL Circa Millions Picks for Week 3
Michael Cohen
J.K. DobbinsRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 18
Bengals vs. Ravens
Right now, J.K. Dobbins’s rushing yards prop is set at 55.5 yards (-120/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 55.5 (-110) after it opened @ 64.5 (-114).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens as the 8th-most run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 46.0% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects J.K. Dobbins to accrue 14.5 carries in this game, on average, putting him in the 84th percentile among RBs.
- J.K. Dobbins has garnered 44.2% of his team’s carries this year, ranking in the 80th percentile among RBs.
- J.K. Dobbins has generated 63.0 rushing yards per game this year, one of the biggest marks in the league among running backs (85th percentile).
- J.K. Dobbins’s rushing effectiveness (5.51 yards per carry) has been some of the best in football this year (92nd percentile among RBs).
Cons
- The Ravens are a 6.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely creating a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Ravens to call the least total plays on the slate this week with 61.8 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- Opposing teams have rushed for the 5th-least yards in football (just 99 per game) vs. the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year.
- The Cincinnati Bengals safeties grade out as the 7th-best collection of safeties in the NFL this year in regard to defending the run.
Projection
THE BLITZ
66
Rushing Yards
66
Rushing Yards
