Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Kenneth Walker IIIRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 18
Seahawks vs. Rams
Right now, Kenneth Walker III’s rushing yards prop is set at 79.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 79.5 (-110) after it opened @ 76.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Seahawks are a 5.5-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
- The Seattle Seahawks have faced a stacked the box on a mere 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
- The Los Angeles Rams have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 5.9% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the league. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
- The Seattle Seahawks have gone no-huddle on 15.5% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (4th-most in football). This speeds up the pace, resulting in more volume and stat production.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks to be the 7th-least run-centric team in football (in a neutral context) right now with a 35.7% run rate.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-least plays run on the slate this week at 127.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Seattle Seahawks O-line profiles as the 4th-worst in the NFL this year at opening holes for rushers.
- Opposing squads have run for the 10th-least yards in football (just 113 per game) against the Los Angeles Rams defense this year.
- The Los Angeles Rams linebackers profile as the 3rd-best collection of LBs in the NFL this year in regard to run defense.
Projection
THE BLITZ
92
Rushing Yards
92
Rushing Yards
