Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
JuJu Smith-SchusterReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 18
Raiders vs. Chiefs
Right now, JuJu Smith-Schuster’s receiving yards prop is set at 53.5 yards (-110/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 53.5 (-110) after it opened @ 52.5 (-114).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the 2nd-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 67.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects JuJu Smith-Schuster to earn 7.4 targets in this game, on average, ranking in the 84th percentile among wide receivers.
- JuJu Smith-Schuster has accumulated significantly more receiving yards per game (64.0) this year than he did last year (28.0).
- The Las Vegas Raiders defense has allowed the 7th-most receiving yards per game in football (167.0) to WRs this year.
Cons
- The Chiefs are a heavy 8.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
- JuJu Smith-Schuster has been used less as a potential target this season (81.4% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (93.0%).
- The Las Vegas Raiders pass defense has been quite strong when opposing wideouts have gotten into space, conceding an average of 3.41 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 5th-least in football.
- The Kansas City Chiefs have gone up against a stacked the box on just 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
- The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a lowly 1.8% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in football). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.
Projection
THE BLITZ
68
Receiving Yards
68
Receiving Yards
