Week 18 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Christian Kirk from EV Insight

Christian KirkReceiving Yards

Right now, Christian Kirk’s receiving yards prop is set at 59.5 yards (-165/+130).

The public has bet the OVER up to 59.5 (-165) after it opened @ 51.5 (-110).

Pros

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.7% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The weather forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Opposing offenses have averaged 42.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Tennessee Titans defense this year: most in the league.
Christian Kirk has run fewer routes this year (94.7% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (81.9%).
THE BLITZ projects Christian Kirk to total 7.3 targets in this week’s game, on average, placing him in the 81st percentile among wide receivers.

Cons

The Jaguars are a 6.5-point favorite in this week’s game, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Jaguars to call the 11th-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 64.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Christian Kirk has put up significantly fewer air yards this year (65.0 per game) than he did last year (75.0 per game).
Christian Kirk’s sure-handedness have worsened this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 72.6% to 68.0%.
The Tennessee Titans safeties grade out as the best collection of safeties in the NFL this year in pass coverage.

Projection

THE BLITZ
63
Receiving Yards