Week 16 Player Props: Passing Yards for Justin Fields from EV Insight

Justin FieldsPassing Yards

Right now, Justin Fields’s passing yards prop is set at 135.5 yards (+112/-154).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 135.5 (-154) after it opened @ 137.5 (-115).

Pros

The Bears are a huge 8.5-point underdog this week, indicating an extreme passing game script.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 9th-most in the NFL.
Justin Fields’s throwing accuracy has been refined this season, with his Completion% jumping from 60.3% to 64.0%.
Justin Fields has been among the most efficient QBs in the league this year, averaging a terrific 7.44 yards-per-target while checking in at the 75th percentile.
The Chicago Bears offensive line has allowed their quarterback 2.51 seconds before getting pressured (10th-best in the league since the start of last season), which has a strong impact on all air attack metrics across the board.

Cons

The Chicago Bears boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 6.9% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears to be the 2nd-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 42.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 124.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Chicago Bears have called the 4th-least plays in football this year, averaging a mere 53.9 plays per game.
The weather forecast calls for 23-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.

Projection

THE BLITZ
127
Passing Yards