Week 15 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Cole Kmet from EV Insight

Cole KmetReceiving Yards

Right now, Cole Kmet’s receiving yards prop is set at 33.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 33.5 (-110) after it opened @ 32.5 (-115).

Pros

The Bears are a 3.5-point underdog in this week’s game, indicating a passing game script.
Cole Kmet has run a route on 83.3% of his team’s passing plays this year, putting him in the 97th percentile among TEs.
THE BLITZ projects Cole Kmet to earn 5.3 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 89th percentile among TEs.
Cole Kmet has been among the top pass-catching tight ends this year, averaging a terrific 31.0 yards per game while grading out in the 80th percentile.
Cole Kmet’s receiving reliability have gotten a boost this season, with his Completion% increasing from 68.2% to 73.6%.

Cons

The Chicago Bears will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 7.5% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears to be the least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 43.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears offense as the 6th-most sluggish paced team in the league (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 29.42 seconds per play.
The weatherman calls for 14-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
Opposing offenses have averaged 34.2 pass attempts per game against the Philadelphia Eagles defense this year: 9th-least in the NFL.

Projection

THE BLITZ
32
Receiving Yards