Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
T.J. HockensonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Vikings vs. Colts
Right now, T.J. Hockenson’s receiving yards prop is set at 47.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 47.5 (-110) after it opened @ 49.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Minnesota Vikings will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Kevin O’Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 5.0% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings as the 4th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 64.8% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-most plays run among all games this week at 136.3 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects T.J. Hockenson to total 7.9 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 99th percentile among TEs.
Cons
- The Vikings are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.2 pass attempts per game against the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: 3rd-least in the NFL.
- T.J. Hockenson’s 40.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably lower this season than it was last season at 48.2.
- The Minnesota Vikings O-line ranks as the 4th-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all pass attack stats across the board.
- T.J. Hockenson has compiled significantly fewer receiving yards per game (17.0) this year than he did last year (48.0).
Projection
THE BLITZ
55
Receiving Yards
55
Receiving Yards
