Week 13 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Leonard Fournette from EV Insight

Leonard FournetteRushing Yards

Right now, Leonard Fournette’s rushing yards prop is set at 31.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 31.5 (-110) after it opened @ 36.5 (-115).

Pros

The Buccaneers are a 3.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 133.0 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have called the 2nd-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 62.9 plays per game.
Opposing squads have rushed for the most yards in football (133 per game) versus the New Orleans Saints defense this year.
The New Orleans Saints have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 13.5% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the league. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the least run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 34.3% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Leonard Fournette to be much less involved in his team’s rushing attack this week (44.7% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (66.0% in games he has played).
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line ranks as the worst in football this year at blocking for rushers.
Leonard Fournette has run for quite a few less yards per game (48.0) this season than he did last season (60.0).

Projection

THE BLITZ
38
Rushing Yards