Week 13 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Travis Etienne from EV Insight

Travis EtienneRushing Yards

Right now, Travis Etienne’s rushing yards prop is set at 64.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 64.5 (-110) after it opened @ 70.5 (-114).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-most plays run out of all the games this week at 131.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Travis Etienne to garner 16.5 carries in this contest, on average, putting him in the 90th percentile among RBs.
THE BLITZ projects Travis Etienne to be much more involved in his offense’s rushing attack this week (65.0% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (48.6% in games he has played).
Travis Etienne has averaged 66.0 rushing yards per game this year, one of the biggest marks in the league among running backs (91st percentile).
The Detroit Lions defense owns the 2nd-worst efficiency against opposing run games this year, giving up 5.43 yards-per-carry.

Cons

The Jacksonville Jaguars boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 1.8% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
The Jacksonville Jaguars offensive line grades out as the worst in football this year in run blocking.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have used motion in their offense on 33.0% of their plays since the start of last season (8th-least in the league), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.

Projection

THE BLITZ
82
Rushing Yards