Week 13 Player Props: Passing Yards for Deshaun Watson from EV Insight

Deshaun WatsonPassing Yards

Right now, Deshaun Watson’s passing yards prop is set at 237.5 yards (+110/-135).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 237.5 (-135) after it opened @ 252.5 (-115).

Pros

The Cleveland Browns have called the 3rd-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a colossal 62.7 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The Cleveland Browns offensive line grades out as the 6th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.
The Houston Texans pass defense has exhibited poor efficiency this year, surrendering 8.14 yards-per-target: the 8th-most in the NFL.
The Houston Texans defense has struggled when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, allowing an average of 6.20 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 4th-most in football.

Cons

The Browns are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns as the 4th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 50.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 126.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Deshaun Watson to attempt 29.3 passes in this week’s contest, on average: the 4th-least of all quarterbacks.
Opposing QBs have averaged 33.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Houston Texans defense this year: 6th-least in football.

Projection

THE BLITZ
241
Passing Yards