Week 13 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Dalvin Cook from EV Insight

Dalvin CookRushing Yards

Right now, Dalvin Cook’s rushing yards prop is set at 70.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 70.5 (-110) after it opened @ 68.5 (-115).

Pros

The Vikings are a 3-point favorite this week, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 132.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Dalvin Cook to notch 16.9 rush attempts this week, on average, placing him in the 92nd percentile among running backs.
Dalvin Cook has garnered 75.1% of his offense’s carries this year, putting him in the 97th percentile among RBs.

Cons

The Minnesota Vikings will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Kevin O’Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 4.9% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings to be the 7th-least run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 35.7% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Dalvin Cook has rushed for significantly fewer yards per game (75.0) this season than he did last season (89.0).
The New York Jets defense has produced the 4th-best efficiency against opposing running games this year, allowing just 4.16 yards-per-carry.

Projection

THE BLITZ
75
Rushing Yards