Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Tua TagovailoaPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Dolphins vs. Texans
Right now, Tua Tagovailoa’s passing yards prop is set at 275.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 275.5 (-110) after it opened @ 286.5 (-114).
Pros
- Tua Tagovailoa has thrown for many more yards per game (275.0) this year than he did last year (204.0).
- Tua Tagovailoa’s throwing precision has improved this season, with his Completion% increasing from 67.4% to 70.7%.
- Tua Tagovailoa’s passing effectiveness has gotten a boost this season, totaling 8.87 yards-per-target vs a measly 6.84 rate last season.
- The Houston Texans pass defense has shown weak efficiency this year, giving up 8.28 yards-per-target: the 6th-most in the league.
- The Houston Texans defense has been vulnerable when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, allowing an average of 7.02 yards-after-the-catch this year: the most in the NFL.
Cons
- The Dolphins are a 3-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 10th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 56.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 126.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Miami Dolphins have run the 6th-least plays in the NFL this year, averaging a lowly 55.6 plays per game.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.1 pass attempts per game versus the Houston Texans defense this year: 5th-least in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
290
Passing Yards
290
Passing Yards
