Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Jared GoffPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Lions vs. Bills
Right now, Jared Goff’s passing yards prop is set at 246.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 246.5 (-110) after it opened @ 242.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Lions are a 3-point underdog in this week’s contest, which points towards a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions to be the 7th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 63.4% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Lions to run the 8th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 66.2 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Jared Goff to attempt 39.7 passes in this game, on average: the 7th-most of all QBs.
Cons
- The Detroit Lions O-line grades out as the 7th-worst in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all passing attack stats across the board.
- The Buffalo Bills defense has excelled when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, allowing an average of 5.14 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 5th-least in the NFL.
- The Buffalo Bills linebackers rank as the best collection of LBs in the NFL this year in pass coverage.
- The Detroit Lions O-line has afforded their quarterback a measly 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all pass attack stats across the board.
- The Detroit Lions have utilized play action on a mere 22.0% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (6th-least in football), which ultimately hampers passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
281
Passing Yards
281
Passing Yards
