Week 12 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Rhamondre Stevenson from EV Insight

Rhamondre StevensonRushing Yards

Right now, Rhamondre Stevenson’s rushing yards prop is set at 55.5 yards (-120/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 55.5 (-110) after it opened @ 60.5 (-114).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to call the 7th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 66.3 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Rhamondre Stevenson to garner 13.4 carries in this game, on average, ranking in the 80th percentile among RBs.
Rhamondre Stevenson has been a much bigger part of his offense’s run game this season (56.2% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (34.9%).
Rhamondre Stevenson has rushed for many more yards per game (62.0) this year than he did last year (47.0).
Rhamondre Stevenson has been among the top running backs in football at picking up extra rushing yardage, averaging a terrific 3.60 yards-after-contact this year while grading out in the 81st percentile.

Cons

The New England Patriots have run the 6th-least plays in the NFL this year, averaging a measly 55.6 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
The Minnesota Vikings defense boasts the 10th-best efficiency against opposing running games this year, yielding just 4.36 yards-per-carry.
The Minnesota Vikings defensive tackles grade out as the best collection of DTs in the NFL this year in regard to stopping the run.
The New England Patriots have been faced with a stacked the box on 27.7% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Projection

THE BLITZ
61
Rushing Yards