WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Rhamondre StevensonRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Vikings vs. Patriots
Right now, Rhamondre Stevenson’s rushing yards prop is set at 55.5 yards (-120/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 55.5 (-110) after it opened @ 60.5 (-114).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to call the 7th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 66.3 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Rhamondre Stevenson to garner 13.4 carries in this game, on average, ranking in the 80th percentile among RBs.
- Rhamondre Stevenson has been a much bigger part of his offense’s run game this season (56.2% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (34.9%).
- Rhamondre Stevenson has rushed for many more yards per game (62.0) this year than he did last year (47.0).
- Rhamondre Stevenson has been among the top running backs in football at picking up extra rushing yardage, averaging a terrific 3.60 yards-after-contact this year while grading out in the 81st percentile.
Cons
- The New England Patriots have run the 6th-least plays in the NFL this year, averaging a measly 55.6 plays per game.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- The Minnesota Vikings defense boasts the 10th-best efficiency against opposing running games this year, yielding just 4.36 yards-per-carry.
- The Minnesota Vikings defensive tackles grade out as the best collection of DTs in the NFL this year in regard to stopping the run.
- The New England Patriots have been faced with a stacked the box on 27.7% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
61
Rushing Yards
61
Rushing Yards
