Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Justin JeffersonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Vikings vs. Patriots
Right now, Justin Jefferson’s receiving yards prop is set at 85.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 85.5 (-110) after it opened @ 80.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Minnesota Vikings will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Kevin O’Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.7% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings as the 4th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 64.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 132.4 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 35.1 pass attempts per game versus the New England Patriots defense this year: 9th-most in the NFL.
- Justin Jefferson has put up quite a few more receiving yards per game (107.0) this season than he did last season (90.0).
Cons
- Justin Jefferson has notched significantly fewer air yards this season (108.0 per game) than he did last season (128.0 per game).
- Justin Jefferson’s 70.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably worse this year than it was last year at 81.0.
- The Minnesota Vikings O-line grades out as the 5th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.
- The New England Patriots defense has surrendered the 9th-least receiving yards per game in football (just 130.0) to WRs this year.
- The New England Patriots pass defense has yielded the 5th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (61.9%) versus WRs this year (61.9%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
108
Receiving Yards
108
Receiving Yards
