Week 8 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Hunter Henry from EV Insight

Hunter HenryReceiving Yards

Right now, Hunter Henry’s receiving yards prop is set at 24.5 yards (-115/-114).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 24.5 (-114) after it opened @ 25.5 (-120).

Pros

The weather forecast calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The New England Patriots offensive line profiles as the 6th-best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.
Hunter Henry has been among the most efficient receivers in the league among TEs, averaging a terrific 7.89 yards-per-target this year while grading out in the 75th percentile.
Hunter Henry’s ability to grind out extra yardage has gotten a boost this year, compiling 5.64 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a mere 2.48 mark last year.
The New York Jets have stacked the box vs. opponents on 22.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Cons

The Patriots are a 3-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots as the 6th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 54.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to call the 10th-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 63.7 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New England Patriots have called the 6th-least plays in football this year, totaling a measly 53.6 plays per game.
Hunter Henry has totaled far fewer air yards this season (29.0 per game) than he did last season (46.0 per game).

Projection

THE BLITZ
32
Receiving Yards