Week 8 Player Props: Passing Yards for Zach Wilson from EV Insight

Zach WilsonPassing Yards

Right now, Zach Wilson’s passing yards prop is set at 178.5 yards (-110/-120).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 178.5 (-120) after it opened @ 178.5 (-115).

Pros

The Jets are a 3-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
The New York Jets offense has played at the 3rd-fastest pace in the league (adjusted for context) this year, averaging 26.56 seconds per snap.
The weatherman calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Zach Wilson’s passing accuracy has gotten better this year, with his Completion% increasing from 56.0% to 60.0%.
The New York Jets O-line has allowed their quarterback 2.69 seconds before the pass (5th-best in the league since the start of last season), which has a positive effect on all passing game stats across the board.

Cons

The New York Jets O-line ranks as the 6th-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all passing game statistics across the board.
Zach Wilson has been among the weakest quarterbacks in the NFL this year, averaging 166.0 yards per game while ranking in the 17th percentile.
Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 6th-lowest clip in the NFL versus the New England Patriots defense this year (66.1%).
The New England Patriots defense has been quite strong when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, allowing an average of 5.49 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 9th-least in the NFL.
The New England Patriots cornerbacks profile as the 9th-best unit in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

Projection

THE BLITZ
223
Passing Yards