Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Kenneth Walker IIIRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Seahawks vs. Giants
Right now, Kenneth Walker III’s rushing yards prop is set at 80.5 yards (-110/-120).
The public has bet the OVER up to 80.5 (-110) after it opened @ 78.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Seahawks are a 3-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks as the 9th-most run-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 44.6% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The New York Giants defense has produced the 2nd-worst efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, yielding 5.58 yards-per-carry.
- The New York Giants linebackers rank as the 2nd-worst unit in football this year in regard to stopping the run.
- The Seattle Seahawks have faced a stacked the box on a measly 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in the league. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Cons
- The Seattle Seahawks have called the 5th-least plays in football this year, totaling a measly 53.4 plays per game.
- The Seattle Seahawks O-line grades out as the 9th-worst in the league this year at opening holes for rushers.
- The Seattle Seahawks have gone for it on 4th down just 8.7% of the time since the start of last season (least in football), which typically means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.
- The Seattle Seahawks have used motion in their offense on 28.2% of their play-calls since the start of last season (5th-least in the NFL), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.
Projection
THE BLITZ
100
Rushing Yards
100
Rushing Yards
