Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Saquon BarkleyRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Seahawks vs. Giants
Right now, Saquon Barkley’s rushing yards prop is set at 82.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 82.5 (-115) after it opened @ 83.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the New York Giants to be the 5th-most run-oriented team on the slate this week with a 46.6% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Giants to run the 8th-most total plays among all teams this week with 65.0 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The New York Giants have run the 9th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 61.3 plays per game.
- Saquon Barkley has run for a lot more yards per game (100.0) this season than he did last season (41.0).
- Opposing offenses have rushed for the 3rd-most yards in football (156 per game) versus the Seattle Seahawks defense this year.
Cons
- The Giants are a 3-point underdog in this week’s game, which points towards a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects Saquon Barkley to be a much smaller piece of his offense’s running game this week (62.5% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (73.7% in games he has played).
- The Seattle Seahawks have stacked the box vs. opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
- The New York Giants have utilized motion in their offense on 26.6% of their plays since the start of last season (2nd-least in the league), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.
Projection
THE BLITZ
83
Rushing Yards
83
Rushing Yards
