Week 8 Player Props: Passing Yards for Trevor Lawrence from EV Insight

Trevor LawrencePassing Yards

Right now, Trevor Lawrence’s passing yards prop is set at 217.5 yards (+110/-145).

The public has bet the OVER up to 217.5 (+110) after it opened @ 214.5 (-115).

Pros

The Jacksonville Jaguars boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.4% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Jaguars to call the 2nd-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 67.1 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 39.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Denver Broncos defense this year: 5th-most in football.
The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line ranks as the 3rd-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all air attack stats across the board.
Trevor Lawrence has thrown for a lot more yards per game (247.0) this year than he did last year (213.0).

Cons

The forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
Opposing QBs have passed for the 2nd-least yards in football (just 194.0 per game) vs. the Denver Broncos defense this year.
The Denver Broncos pass defense has exhibited strong efficiency this year, giving up 5.98 yards-per-target: the least in football.
The Denver Broncos safeties grade out as the 2nd-best unit in the NFL this year in pass coverage.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Projection

THE BLITZ
214
Passing Yards