Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Amari CooperReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Browns vs. Patriots
Right now, Amari Cooper’s receiving yards prop is set at 50.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 50.5 (-110) after it opened @ 53.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Cleveland Browns have called the 4th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a colossal 65.0 plays per game.
- Opposing teams have averaged 38.0 pass attempts per game versus the New England Patriots defense this year: 9th-most in the NFL.
- THE BLITZ projects Amari Cooper to earn 7.7 targets in this contest, on average, ranking in the 84th percentile among wideouts.
- Amari Cooper has notched significantly more air yards this year (97.0 per game) than he did last year (79.0 per game).
- Amari Cooper’s 69.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly higher this year than it was last year at 47.0.
Cons
- The Browns are a 3-point favorite in this week’s game, likely creating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns to be the 2nd-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 49.9% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-least plays run out of all the games this week at 126.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
- Amari Cooper’s pass-game effectiveness has diminished this season, accumulating a measly 8.30 yards-per-target compared to a 9.76 rate last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
55
Receiving Yards
55
Receiving Yards
