WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Jonathan TaylorRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Colts vs. Titans
Right now, Jonathan Taylor’s rushing yards prop is set at 95.5 yards (+100/-130).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 95.5 (-130) after it opened @ 95.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Colts are a 4-point favorite in this game, likely creating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts to be the 10th-most run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 44.0% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The weatherman calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Jonathan Taylor to accumulate 22.2 rush attempts in this contest, on average, placing him in the 99th percentile among RBs.
- Jonathan Taylor has been given 84.3% of his offense’s carries this year, placing him in the 99th percentile among RBs.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Colts to run the 3rd-least total plays among all teams this week with 63.1 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Jonathan Taylor’s running efficiency has diminished this year, notching a measly 4.72 yards-per-carry compared to a 5.94 rate last year.
- Opposing offenses have run for the 3rd-least yards in the NFL (just 94 per game) versus the Tennessee Titans defense since the start of last season.
- The Tennessee Titans safeties rank as the 5th-best safety corps in the league since the start of last season with their run defense.
- The Indianapolis Colts have gone no-huddle on a lowly 2.7% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in the league). This slows the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.
Projection
THE BLITZ
111
Rushing Yards
111
Rushing Yards
