Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Matthew StaffordPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Cardinals vs. Rams
Right now, Matthew Stafford’s passing yards prop is set at 274.5 yards (-127/-108).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 274.5 (-108) after it opened @ 279.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams as the most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 64.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects Matthew Stafford to attempt 36.6 passes in this contest, on average: the 2nd-most of all QBs.
- The Los Angeles Rams O-line ranks as the 5th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.
- Matthew Stafford’s passing precision has improved this year, with his Completion% jumping from 65.4% to 72.1%.
Cons
- The Rams are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams as the 3rd-most sluggish paced defense in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment, leading opposing offenses to average 28.46 seconds per snap.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 31.5 pass attempts per game versus the Arizona Cardinals defense since the start of last season: 5th-least in the league.
- Opposing teams have passed for the 10th-least yards in football (just 219.0 per game) against the Arizona Cardinals defense since the start of last season.
- The Arizona Cardinals defense has excelled when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, allowing an average of 4.88 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 4th-least in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
284
Passing Yards
284
Passing Yards
