Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Davis MillsPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Bears vs. Texans
Right now, Davis Mills’s passing yards prop is set at 206.5 yards (-115/-110).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 206.5 (-110) after it opened @ 215.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Houston Texans boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 3.7% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
- The Texans are a 3-point underdog in this week’s contest, which points towards a passing game script.
- The Chicago Bears cornerbacks rank as the 6th-worst unit in football since the start of last season in covering receivers.
- The Chicago Bears pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs 2.51 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 10th-most sluggish in the league since the start of last season.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Texans to call the 10th-least total plays on the slate this week with 59.8 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Houston Texans have run the 3rd-least plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging just 59.7 plays per game.
- The forecast calls for 18-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects Davis Mills to attempt 31.6 passes this week, on average: the 9th-least of all QBs.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 27.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Chicago Bears defense since the start of last season: least in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
195
Passing Yards
195
Passing Yards
