College Football Best Bets of the Week: Week 9
Walter Waddell
Rashaad PennyRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Seahawks vs. Broncos
Right now, Rashaad Penny’s rushing yards prop is set at 69.5 yards (-137/+100).
The public has bet up the OVER up to 69.5 (-137) after it opened @ 65.5 (-114).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects Rashaad Penny to notch 15.5 carries in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 93rd percentile among RBs.
- THE BLITZ projects Rashaad Penny to be a more integral piece of his offense’s rushing attack this week (61.5% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (47.2% in games he has played).
- Rashaad Penny has picked up 71.0 rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the highest marks in the league among running backs (97th percentile).
- Rashaad Penny has been among the leading running backs in the league at grinding out extra rushing yardage, averaging an impressive 4.52 yards-after-contact since the start of last season while ranking in the 97th percentile.
- The Denver Broncos have stacked the box versus opponents on just 9.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-least in football. Choosing not to position an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
Cons
- The Seahawks are a 6.5-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks as the least run-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 40.8% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Seahawks to call the least plays on offense among all teams this week with 61.3 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- The Denver Broncos safeties grade out as the 9th-best group of safeties in the NFL since the start of last season in regard to stopping the run.
Projection
THE BLITZ
73
Rushing Yards
73
Rushing Yards
