Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Welcome to Hoops with Noops! Last week on “The NBA Regular Season,” we saw the Lakers and Warriors somehow get worse, a trade that benefited both teams and so much more. January can be a tough time for NBA fans because teams are positioning themselves for the trade deadline and beginning to rest their best players. It’s been a brutal first week of the year for the Lakers, who did finally win Sunday night, but they have a locker room full of players who have made it clear they don’t trust their coach, Darvin Ham.
The Warriors lineup will continue to change, but this time because Chris Paul is out for over a month. On the positive side of things, both the Toronto Raptors and New York Knicks look to have improved their teams thanks to their recent trade. Immanuel Quickley is exactly the guard the Raptors have been missing, and OG Anunoby has been a perfect fit in Tom Thibodeau’s system. We have six more games tonight, so let’s see what might happen and what bets there are to make. Of course, since it’s Monday, you can watch a video version of Hoops with Noops on the FTN YouTube channel. Please check that out and leave any questions or thoughts you have in the comments. Onto the hoops!
Chicago Bulls at Charlotte Hornets
Current Line – Bulls -6.5, 216.5
My Projection – Bulls 111, Hornets 102
Key Injuries – LaMelo Ball, Gordon Hayward, P.J. Washington, and Mark Williams are out. Alex Caruso is questionable.
U, G, L, Y, this game is unlikely to have an alibi, because it’s going to be ugly. The Chicago Bulls play at the slowest pace of any team in the NBA by more than a full possession per game. The Charlotte Hornets have played at the second-slowest pace in the league since losing LaMelo Ball in late November. These teams have played twice since then, and the pace of those games was 96.4 and 92.2. The average pace in the NBA is just shy of 100 possessions per game. Two slow teams have played two slow games, and I see no reason to believe the third game will be any different. My projections like the full game under, but I’m going to take a different angle and just bet the Charlotte Hornets’ team total under. Chicago gets Nikola Vucevic back tonight and just recently put Zach LaVine back on the court. The latter is the best scorer on the team and the former is one of the most talented offensive players on the team. They are not great defenders, but the Bulls have had a good defensive rating all season even with both on the court together. The addition of their offensive talent raises the ceiling for Chicago’s point total which could sabotage a full game under, but it shouldn’t get in the way of keeping the Charlotte team total from going under 104.5. With all the players listed above missing for the Hornets, Terry Rozier and Miles Bridges become the two best scorers which is a sad state of affairs until you try to pick the now third-best scorer on the team. Things look bleak for Charlotte tonight, and they might fail to score 100 points let alone the 105 they need to beat their current team total.
Bets
Charlotte Hornets Team Total Under 104.5 (-106, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Oklahoma City Thunder at Washington Wizards
Current Line – Thunder +11.5, 247.5
My Projection – Thunder 131, Wizards 115
I don’t normally bet spreads this big, but when I do, it’s with a team like the Oklahoma City Thunder. OKC has a deep roster full of young players which means their second- and even third-string players are at worst average level NBA players. It allows the Thunder to continue to increase their advantage in minutes without their starters. Most good teams are top-heavy and struggle when their stars are not on the floor. They have won 14 games this season by 12 points or more. They were favorites of eight points or more four times and have covered all four of those numbers. Tonight, they face one of the worst teams in the NBA, the Washington Wizards, but they won their four games against the Detroit Pistons, San Antonio Spurs, Portland Trail Blazers and Utah Jazz by an average of 26 points. As bad as Washington has played this year, they have covered big spreads all season thanks to scoring late against a team’s backup players. That’s not going to happen tonight because the Thunder’s bench unit is full of good players who will play their best basketball to try to secure more playing time in OKC or draw the attention of their next team. Oklahoma City has shown all year that they finish strong and continue to extend their leads rather than ease through the final parts of games. I make the Thunder 16-point favorites, so I’ll happily lay 11.5 points or better with OKC tonight.
Bets
Oklahoma City Thunder -11.5 (-105, BetMGM)
Not For Noops
Games I’m not betting and why I’m not betting them.
Boston Celtics at Indiana Pacers +3, 244
This game is tough to bet, because we don’t know who is playing for Boston. Jayson Tatum and Kristaps Porzingis are both listed as questionable, and I expect them not to play. They are the two most important Celtics, and without them, Indiana may be able to outgun Boston. If both can play, this would be a great price on Boston, but the line will move at least three points if it’s announced that Tatum and Porzingis are playing. It’s too messy to bet now, and I don’t expect the line to have value once things become clearer. I’m passing on this game.
Houston Rockets at Miami Heat -4, 219.5
I almost backed the Rockets in this game, but I don’t have a great feel for either team right now. This version of the Miami Heat with Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro but no Jimmy Butler is interesting, but I don’t quite have a handle on how good they are. The Heat have gone over their team total eight times in the last 10 home games but have gone under in each of the last five road games. Does the warm Miami air really make that big of a difference? I think the Rockets are the better team, but their home/road performance splits are huge, and this is their first road game after seven games and a two-week homestand. Lean Rockets, but not with any confidence, so no bets.
Utah Jazz at Milwaukee Bucks -10, 245
This is a bad schedule spot for the Utah Jazz. It’s the end of a three-game road trip and their third game in the last four nights. They also got a win as big underdogs over the Philadelphia 76ers without Joel Embiid on Saturday. It’s a fatigue spot, a letdown spot and a lookahead spot with a home game against the Denver Nuggets on Wednesday. Unfortunately, to fade the Jazz tonight we would need to be on a Milwaukee Bucks team that looks to be regressing. Luckily, they don’t have to face the Pacers again, but they lost to the Houston Rockets after barely beating the San Antonio Spurs. The Bucks are a mess and vulnerable to teams that can have a volatile three-point shooting performance. The Jazz are top 10 in average three-point attempts, and although they are bottom 10 in made three-point percentage, they could easily make a few late to keep this game closer than the spread. I do think the Bucks can smash the Jazz tonight, but I’m not betting on it.
Phoenix Suns at Los Angeles Clippers -6.5, 230
This game is a mess. Both teams played last night and both teams played poorly. The Clippers looked lost, and Kawhi Leonard played one of his worst games of the season in a three-point loss to a Lakers team that had been reeling. The Suns, who were playing their sixth consecutive game at home, lost to the Memphis Grizzlies by six points despite having an 11-point lead to start the fourth quarter. Both teams are tired and beaten down heading into this contest. We also don’t know if each team’s star players are actually playing tonight. This is an easy one to skip.
