Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs

It was a glorious Week 10 for the NFL moneyline underdogs. Both plays hit, with the Vikings (+125) and a fantastic Texans (+260) bringing home a monster week. Let’s run it back for Week 11. 

Again, these are high-risk plays for a reason. They will not hit at a normal rate. However, when they do hit, we often get enough of a payout to keep our bankroll replenished. 

Each week, I will give you my favorite moneyline underdogs I believe have the best chance to pull the outright upset. There won’t be a fixed number of games. It could be one, two or even three underdogs I like for the upcoming schedule of games.

Let’s take a look at my favorite moneyline underdog for Week 11 of the 2023 season!

Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs

Philadelphia +3.5 at Kansas City

(+130, DraftKings Sportsbook)

There are very few options this week, as I like most of the favorites. However, I’m grabbing the Eagles in a massive Monday night matchup at Kansas City. 

The Chiefs (7-2) have continued their winning ways, currently residing as the No. 1 overall playoff seed in the AFC. However, their record hides concerns about an inconsistent Kansas City offense. The Chiefs rank just 23rd in rush offense DVOA, and still have not found consistency in the wide receiver position. They do not have a wide receiver with over 32 receptions on the season and rely heavily on Travis Kelce as their primary passing-game weapon. 

Philadelphia brings a stout run defense, ranking second overall in DVOA. This means the Chiefs must move the ball with their passing attack to score points, which they will need to do against an Eagles offense that ranks third overall in points per game (28). Philadelphia has scored 28 or more points in three straight games, all victories. 

This is the exact betting spot where Patrick Mahomes has struggled in his career. As a home favorite of up to a touchdown, Mahomes is just 6-10 (37.5%) ATS, including an astonishing 2-8 in his last 10 games. (BetLabs)

Philadelphia is the more balanced team with elite wide receivers, and a pass rush that should disrupt Mahomes’ offensive rhythm. I’m taking an underdog Philadelphia team that is looking for revenge after last year’s crushing Super Bowl loss. 

The Pick

Eagles ML (+130)