NFL Circa Millions Picks for Week 3
Michael Cohen
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Arizona Diamondbacks @ Chicago White Sox
Diamondbacks -142 @ White Sox +120 – Total 9 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Two of my favorite fades face off in the south side of Chicago Tuesday night as the Diamondbacks and White Sox begin a three-game set. Not only is Zach Davies (allegedly) a terrible person off the field, but he’s a gas can on the bump. Davies has posted both an expected ERA and SIERA over five on the bump in 2023. I considered the full game total but I don’t totally trust the White Sox offense. Instead we’ll head back to the well and fade José Ureña.
Ureña makes his ninth start of the season, as he’s posted a 7.27 ERA, 6.17 xERA and 5.49 SIERA through 34.2 innings. As horrific as that stat line is, those numbers aren’t far off from his career marks. Ureña has a career ERA of 4.91 in 829.1 career innings, and it’s not just the surface stats that tell us he doesn’t belong. Every single one of the advanced stats suggests that his ERA of five is deserved. For his career, Ureña has posted a 4.90 FIP, 4.85 xFIP and a 4.95 SIERA. Batters are hitting just under .300 off the 32-year-old this season with a .373 on-base percentage and a slugging percentage of .669. Overall, the White Sox are allowing 5.29 runs per game, fifth most in the Show.
As bad as Ureña is, the White Sox pen has been worse lately. Over the last 14 days they’ve posted a 7.29 ERA and 5.12 SIERA. Their WHIP is barely below two at 1.98. All three of those stats are easily the worst in MLB over that stretch.
The Arizona offense has been pretty average over the last 30 days, as they sit near the middle of the pack in most categories. They average 4.64 runs a game but over their last 10 games they’ve been one of the more profitable teams in the team total market. This is certainly a pitching fade more so than backing a hot offense. I would have passed on this bet if it would have opened at 5.5, but the Diamondbacks should be able to put up five against Ureña and an even worse White Sox bullpen.
Frank Brank’s MLB Model agrees with our bet, as Frank projects the Diamondbacks for 4.9 runs Tuesday night. Be sure to check the FTN Prop Shop to ensure you’re betting the best number available.
Bet
Diamondbacks TT Over 4.5 (-128, FanDuel Sportsbook)
