Week 2 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Adam Thielen

Adam ThielenReceiving Yards

Right now, Adam Thielen’s receiving yards prop is set at 29.5 yards (+110/-140).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 29.5 (-140) after it opened @ 35.5 (-115).

Pros

The Carolina Panthers boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Thomas Brown, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 4.8% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The Panthers are a 3-point underdog in this week’s game, likely creating a passing game script.
The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Adam Thielen has run a route on 90.8% of his team’s dropbacks since the start of last season, ranking him in the 84th percentile among wideouts.
The Carolina Panthers O-line profiles as the 7th-best in football since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers to be the 10th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 55.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 127.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Carolina Panthers have run the least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a lowly 54.0 plays per game.
Adam Thielen has been among the worst wideouts in football at generating extra yardage, averaging a lowly 2.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while checking in at the 14th percentile.
The New Orleans Saints defense has conceded the 7th-least receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 130.0) vs. wide receivers since the start of last season.

Projection

THE BLITZ
36
Receiving Yards