Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Mark AndrewsReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Bengals vs. Ravens
Right now, Mark Andrews’s receiving yards prop is set at 49.5 yards (-109/-120).
The public has bet the OVER up to 49.5 (-109) after it opened @ 44.5 (-112).
Pros
- The Baltimore Ravens will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.4% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
- The Ravens are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, indicating a passing game script.
- The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Mark Andrews to total 7.8 targets in this week’s contest, on average, ranking in the 98th percentile among tight ends.
- Mark Andrews has put up a monstrous 79.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 100th percentile among TEs.
Cons
- The Ravens have been the 7th-least pass-heavy team in football (context-neutralized) since the start of last season with a 55.1% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens offense as the 6th-slowest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 29.22 seconds per play.
- THE BLITZ projects Mark Andrews to be a much smaller part of his offense’s air attack this week (24.0% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (29.9% in games he has played).
- Mark Andrews has been among the most unreliable receivers in the league among TEs, catching a mere 65.7% of balls thrown his way since the start of last season, grading out in the 18th percentile.
- The Cincinnati Bengals defense has allowed the 3rd-least receiving yards per game in the league (just 34.0) vs. TEs since the start of last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
67
Receiving Yards
67
Receiving Yards
