Week 2 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Darren Waller from EV Insight

Darren WallerReceiving Yards

Right now, Darren Waller’s receiving yards prop is set at 45.5 yards (-110/-120).

The public has bet the OVER up to 45.5 (-110) after it opened @ 40.5 (-115).

Pros

The New York Giants have run the 9th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a monstrous 59.5 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Darren Waller to accumulate 6.3 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 97th percentile among TEs.
THE BLITZ projects Darren Waller to be much more involved in his offense’s passing attack this week (21.0% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (14.9% in games he has played).
The Arizona Cardinals defense has surrendered the 3rd-most receiving yards per game in the NFL (60.0) vs. TEs since the start of last season.

Cons

The Giants are a 4.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New York Giants to be the 5th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 53.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 122.6 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The New York Giants O-line profiles as the 2nd-worst in the league since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a harmful effect on all pass game stats across the board.
Darren Waller’s ball-catching skills have declined this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 68.1% to 58.0%.

Projection

THE BLITZ
51
Receiving Yards