Week 2 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Courtland Sutton from EV Insight

Courtland SuttonReceiving Yards

Right now, Courtland Sutton’s receiving yards prop is set at 47.5 yards (-120/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 47.5 (-110) after it opened @ 57.5 (-120).

Pros

Courtland Sutton has run a route on 94.4% of his offense’s passing plays since the start of last season, ranking in the 94th percentile among wide receivers.
THE BLITZ projects Courtland Sutton to accrue 6.4 targets in this week’s game, on average, ranking in the 77th percentile among wideouts.
Courtland Sutton has accrued a colossal 96.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 95th percentile among WRs.
Courtland Sutton has been among the best WRs in the league since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 55.0 yards per game while grading out in the 79th percentile.
The Washington Commanders pass defense has exhibited poor efficiency vs. wideouts since the start of last season, giving up 9.10 yards-per-target to the position: the 4th-most in the NFL.

Cons

The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Sean Payton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 1.4% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
The Broncos are a 3.5-point favorite in this week’s game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos to be the 9th-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 54.4% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos offense as the 2nd-slowest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 30.43 seconds per snap.
Opposing offenses have averaged 29.4 pass attempts per game versus the Washington Commanders defense since the start of last season: 3rd-least in the league.

Projection

THE BLITZ
49
Receiving Yards