Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Jordan LovePassing Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Falcons vs. Packers
Right now, Jordan Love’s passing yards prop is set at 211.5 yards (-109/-125).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 211.5 (-125) after it opened @ 212.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Packers are a 3-point underdog in this week’s game, which points towards a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers as the 8th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 61.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- Jordan Love has been among the most efficient quarterbacks in football since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 7.61 yards-per-target while grading out in the 84th percentile.
- Opposing QBs have passed for the 9th-most yards in the league (228.0 per game) versus the Atlanta Falcons defense since the start of last season.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Packers to run the 3rd-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 61.5 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Atlanta Falcons defense has been quite strong when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, yielding an average of 4.44 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 6th-least in football.
- The Atlanta Falcons safeties profile as the best group of safeties in the NFL since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
268
Passing Yards
268
Passing Yards
