Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Luke MusgraveReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Falcons vs. Packers
Right now, Luke Musgrave’s receiving yards prop is set at 34.5 yards (+100/-130).
The public has bet the OVER up to 34.5 (+100) after it opened @ 31.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Packers are a 3-point underdog in this week’s game, which points towards a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers as the 8th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 61.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects Luke Musgrave to earn 6.2 targets in this contest, on average, ranking in the 95th percentile among tight ends.
- The Atlanta Falcons defense has surrendered the 4th-most receiving yards per game in the NFL (58.0) vs. TEs since the start of last season.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Packers to run the 3rd-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 61.5 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Atlanta Falcons pass defense has been quite strong when opposing TEs have gotten into space, yielding an average of 3.82 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 7th-least in the NFL.
- The Atlanta Falcons safeties profile as the best group of safeties in the NFL since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
50
Receiving Yards
50
Receiving Yards
