Week 2 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Kyle Pitts from EV Insight

Kyle PittsReceiving Yards

Right now, Kyle Pitts’s receiving yards prop is set at 34.5 yards (-115/-113).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 34.5 (-113) after it opened @ 35.5 (-114).

Pros

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Kyle Pitts to notch 6.2 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 95th percentile among TEs.
Kyle Pitts has been a big part of his team’s pass game, earning a Target Share of 25.7% since the start of last season, which puts him in the 99th percentile among TEs.
Kyle Pitts has notched a whopping 74.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 99th percentile among TEs.
Kyle Pitts has been among the top pass-game TEs since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 35.0 yards per game while ranking in the 85th percentile.

Cons

The Falcons are a 3-point favorite in this week’s game, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons as the 3rd-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 53.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 125.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Atlanta Falcons have called the 5th-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a measly 54.4 plays per game.
Opposing QBs have averaged 28.6 pass attempts per game against the Green Bay Packers defense since the start of last season: 2nd-least in football.

Projection

THE BLITZ
53
Receiving Yards