Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Kyle PittsReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Falcons vs. Packers
Right now, Kyle Pitts’s receiving yards prop is set at 34.5 yards (-115/-113).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 34.5 (-113) after it opened @ 35.5 (-114).
Pros
- This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects Kyle Pitts to notch 6.2 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 95th percentile among TEs.
- Kyle Pitts has been a big part of his team’s pass game, earning a Target Share of 25.7% since the start of last season, which puts him in the 99th percentile among TEs.
- Kyle Pitts has notched a whopping 74.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 99th percentile among TEs.
- Kyle Pitts has been among the top pass-game TEs since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 35.0 yards per game while ranking in the 85th percentile.
Cons
- The Falcons are a 3-point favorite in this week’s game, likely creating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons as the 3rd-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 53.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 125.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Atlanta Falcons have called the 5th-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a measly 54.4 plays per game.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 28.6 pass attempts per game against the Green Bay Packers defense since the start of last season: 2nd-least in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
53
Receiving Yards
53
Receiving Yards
