Week 2 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Tyler Higbee from EV Insight

Tyler HigbeeReceiving Yards

Right now, Tyler Higbee’s receiving yards prop is set at 41.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 41.5 (-110) after it opened @ 40.5 (-110).

Pros

The Rams are a massive 7.5-point underdog in this week’s game, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams as the most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 66.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Opposing QBs have averaged 36.4 pass attempts per game against the San Francisco 49ers defense since the start of last season: 3rd-most in the NFL.
THE BLITZ projects Tyler Higbee to accrue 6.3 targets this week, on average, ranking in the 97th percentile among TEs.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Rams to call the least offensive plays on the slate this week with 58.8 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Rams have run the 9th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling just 55.6 plays per game.
Tyler Higbee has been among the least effective receivers in the league among tight ends, averaging a lowly 6.18 yards-per-target since the start of last season while ranking in the 20th percentile.
The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has surrendered the 5th-lowest Completion% in football (67.4%) vs. tight ends since the start of last season (67.4%).
The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has shown good efficiency vs. TEs since the start of last season, allowing 5.91 yards-per-target to the position: the 4th-least in the NFL.

Projection

THE BLITZ
43
Receiving Yards