Best MLB Bets Today – Free (Thursday 9/14)

Welcome to the FTN’s free MLB Picks of the Day, featuring our favorite or best MLB bets. FTN will be posting a play or two from the MLB card — for free!

Today, MLBdream provides his picks. 

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Best MLB Bets and Picks Today

Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox 

Twins -190 @ White Sox +158 – Total 9 (Caesars)

We’re 0-2 on writeups this week, with both L’s in the team total market. But that’s not going to stop me from firing on playable edges. You know the drill by now – great offense versus a gascan on the mound equals a bet. Thursday we’re fading a pitcher that doesn’t belong in the Show, so let’s get into it. 

At the dish, Minnesota’s offense has been humming, ranking just outside the top five in wRC+ against right-handed pitching over the last 30 days at 123 – 23% better than league average. Their .348 wOBA is tied with the Braves over that period for sixth-best in baseball. The Twinkies rank sixth in runs and home runs, and their 12% walk rate ranks best. Not only do the Twins have a disciplined approach at the plate but when they do swing, they’re making elite contact, as their barrel percentage at 10.4% is second to only Atlanta.

I mentioned above that we’re fading a pitcher that shouldn’t be in the league, and he probably wouldn’t be starting if it wasn’t for the putrid White Sox. Even the Rockies, who are an embarrassment of an organization, cut José Ureña. Ureña has a career ERA of 4.90 in over 800 career innings, and it’s not just the surface stats that tell us he doesn’t belong. Every single one of the advanced stats tell us that his ERA of five is deserved. For his career, Ureña has posted a 4.90 FIP, 4.87 xFIP and a 4.97 SIERA. It isn’t a big sample but through six starts this season, the righty has posted an ERA of 8.56 with a FIP just under 10 at 9.70. We’re projecting six lefties in the lineup Thursday night for the Twins and Ureña has had his issues with hitters from that side of the plate. They’re hitting just under .400 against him this season, with a slash line of .388/.466/.796, which works out to a .511 wOBA and 9.44 FIP. Want to dismiss the small sample size? For his career, lefties are hitting just under .300 and slugging just under .500 against the 32-year-old, for a 5.62 FIP. Batters are making contact on almost 93% of pitches inside the strike zone against Ureña. Overall, the White Sox are allowing 5.19 runs per game, fifth most. Over the last 30 days that number is even higher at 6.40 – which is the second highest, behind only the lowly Rockies. 

The Twins should be able to put up some crooked numbers against Ureña in Chicago. Be sure to check the FTN Prop Shop to ensure you’re betting the best number available.

Bet

Twins TT Over 5 (-120, Caesars)