Best MLB Bets Today – Free (Tuesday 9/12)

Welcome to the FTN’s free MLB Picks of the Day, featuring our favorite or best MLB bets. FTN will be posting a play or two from the MLB card — for free!

Today, MLBdream provides his picks. 

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Best MLB Bets and Picks Today

St. Louis Cardinals @ Baltimore Orioles 

Cardinals +170 @ Orioles -205 – Total 10.5 (Caesars)

I tried to post this bet early since I’m expecting it to be a popular wager, with the market seeing only one-way action. There are a few playable numbers still available, so let’s get into it. 

Adam Wainwright has accumulated 198 career wins in his 18 big-league seasons, but at 41 years old the borderline Hall of Famer can’t seem to reach the 200-win milestone. Waino is having the worst year of his career, and it isn’t close. The righty is 3-11 on the season with an 8.19 ERA, 8.09 xERA and a FIP of 6.33. Not only is his 11.3% K% the lowest of his career, but Wainwright hasn’t been able to induce ground balls either. His ground ball percentage sits at 38.3%, 9 percentage points lower than his career average of 47.3%. Batters are slashing at a superstar level against Wainwright this season, batting .356 with an OBP of .408 and a slugging percentage of .603. The righty’s Savant page is covered in blue, as his expected ERA, expected batting average and whiff percentage sit in the first percentile. Waino has been barreled plenty this season, as his barrel rate sits in the second percentile. Both righties and lefties are hitting over .300 against the soft-tosser, and things won’t get any easier facing the Baby Birds. Wainwright has an ERA over 10 since August, and manager Oliver Marmol can’t count on his bullpen to bail him out. Since August the Cardinals BP ranks bottom 10 in both ERA and FIP. 

The O’s have won eight of 10, as they look to hold off the Rays and clinch the American League East title for the first time since 2014. Baltimore ranks fifth in the Majors in runs per game with 5.17. Since Aug. 1, the Orioles have the seventh-best wRC+ against right-handed pitching at 120. Their 154 runs against righties in that stretch ranks fourth-best in the show. Their offense has been raking over the last 14 days – hitting .315, with a .381 OBP and slugging .497 as a team. Overall, they rank in the top-10 as a team in batting average, slugging percentage, and weight-on-base percentage. Baltimore is one of the better contact teams in the game, facing an arm that has had trouble missing bats no matter who is in the batter’s box.

I’m projecting Wainwright to less than five innings and surrender around three runs before giving away to the pen. Be sure to check the FTN Prop Shop to ensure you’re betting the best number available.

Bet

Orioles TT Over 5.5 (-125, Caesars)