Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Brian RobinsonRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Broncos vs. Commanders
Right now, Brian Robinson’s rushing yards prop is set at 55.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 55.5 (-110) after it opened @ 56.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Washington Commanders have run the 3rd-most plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a whopping 62.3 plays per game.
- THE BLITZ projects Brian Robinson to notch 14.0 carries in this week’s game, on average, ranking him in the 80th percentile among running backs.
- Brian Robinson has earned 53.5% of his team’s carries since the start of last season, ranking him in the 91st percentile among running backs.
- Brian Robinson has grinded out 63.0 yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the biggest figures in the league among running backs (88th percentile).
Cons
- The Washington Commanders boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 9.6% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
- The Commanders are a 3.5-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders as the 9th-least run-centric team on the slate this week with a 38.3% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Commanders to run the 9th-least total plays on the slate this week with 62.8 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Opposing teams have rushed for the 8th-least yards in the NFL (just 110 per game) versus the Denver Broncos defense since the start of last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
62
Rushing Yards
62
Rushing Yards
