Week 2 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Nico Collins from EV Insight

Nico CollinsReceiving Yards

Right now, Nico Collins’s receiving yards prop is set at 47.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 47.5 (-110) after it opened @ 49.5 (-114).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 134.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Nico Collins to garner 6.9 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 83rd percentile among wide receivers.
Nico Collins has posted a whopping 89.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 90th percentile among WRs.
Nico Collins’s 55.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the best in football: 82nd percentile for WRs.

Cons

The Houston Texans will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.1% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans as the 5th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 53.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 30.6 pass attempts per game versus the Indianapolis Colts defense since the start of last season: 6th-least in the NFL.
The Houston Texans offensive line ranks as the 3rd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all passing offense stats across the board.
Nico Collins’s sure-handedness have worsened this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 57.7% to 50.4%.

Projection

THE BLITZ
58
Receiving Yards