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Week 2 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Michael Pittman from EV Insight

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Michael Pittman

Michael PittmanReceiving Yards

Player Props – Week 2

Texans vs. Colts

Right now, Michael Pittman’s receiving yards prop is set at 52.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 52.5 (-110) after it opened @ 54.5 (-114).

Pros

  • THE BLITZ projects the Colts to call the 2nd-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 67.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
  • The Indianapolis Colts have run the 8th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a monstrous 60.3 plays per game.
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
  • Michael Pittman has run a route on 98.5% of his offense’s passing plays since the start of last season, placing him in the 99th percentile among wideouts.
  • THE BLITZ projects Michael Pittman to earn 8.5 targets in this week’s game, on average, putting him in the 92nd percentile among WRs.
Cons

  • The Indianapolis Colts will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Shane Steichen, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.9% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
  • THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts to be the 4th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 53.4% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • Opposing offenses have averaged 30.2 pass attempts per game versus the Houston Texans defense since the start of last season: 5th-least in football.
  • The Indianapolis Colts offensive line ranks as the 7th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all passing offense stats across the board.
  • Michael Pittman has been among the least effective receivers in the NFL, averaging a measly 7.17 yards-per-target since the start of last season while ranking in the 17th percentile among WRs

Projection
THE BLITZ
63
Receiving Yards

Previous Week 2 Player Props: Passing Yards for Derek Carr from EV Insight Next Week 2 Player Props: Passing Yards for C.J. Stroud from EV Insight