Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Derek CarrPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Panthers vs. Saints
Right now, Derek Carr’s passing yards prop is set at 235.5 yards (+100/-130).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 235.5 (-130) after it opened @ 238.5 (-115).
Pros
- The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- Opposing offenses have completed passes at the highest rate in football against the Carolina Panthers defense since the start of last season (73.8%).
- The Carolina Panthers safeties project as the worst unit in the league since the start of last season in covering receivers.
Cons
- The Saints are a 3-point favorite in this game, likely creating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 127.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The New Orleans Saints have called the 7th-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a lowly 55.3 plays per game.
- The New Orleans Saints have played in the 7th-most “low wind” (4-mph or less) games in the league since the start of last season, which ought to result in lower pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced offense performance when facing windier conditions in this game.
- Derek Carr has been among the worst precision passers in football since the start of last season with a 61.5% Completion%, checking in at the 16th percentile.
Projection
THE BLITZ
274
Passing Yards
274
Passing Yards
